The Basics of Hedging
The MLA/SFE Cattle Futures Contract was first listed in August 2002. Since then Cattle Futures have changed the way many progressive producers are doing business.
The producers who are most successful at using Cattle Futures are the ones who understand their cost of production, have profit targets and know how the price of their cattle relates to the Futures price. Cattle Futures have been used to lock in profits once prices have reached the required level.
The producers who use Cattle Futures realize that managing price risk is as important as utilizing pasture and increasing weight gain efficiency.
What you need to know to manage price risks.
Before locking in prices using cattle futures there are two things producers must know, namely their cost of production and the historical difference between their particular cattle type and the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (Cattle Futures price).
The Importance of Cost of Production and Target Setting
Knowing the cost of producing a kilogram of beef allows a producer to calculate the sale price required for a sustainable profit. The profit margin required will be different for each cattle enterprise and will usually depend on historical margins achieved, expected market conditions and the cost of producing a kilogram of beef. Once the cost of production and target margin are known the target sale price is easily calculated. Table 1 shows how a target price for a backgrounder is calculated, it is based on the following assumptions.
| Purchase weight |
280 kgs |
| Sale weight |
452 kgs |
| Purchase Prices |
$2.22/kg lwt |
| Cost of Gain |
$1.00/kg lwt |
| Target Margin |
20% return on costs |
| Purchase date |
May |
| Sale date |
November |
Table 1: Calculating target prices
| Purchase weight
Purchase price
Cost/head
Weight gain
Cost of gain ($/kg)
Cost/head
Cost of production ($/hd)
Target Margin (20% ROC)
Target sale weight
Target sale price
Target sale price ($/kg lwt) |
280
$2.22
$621.60
170
$1.00
$170.00
$791.60
$158.32
452
$949.92
$2.10 |
To achieve a 20% return on capital employed (ROC), the backgrounders target sale price is $2.10/kg lwt.
Relating Your Price to the Cattle Futures
Before producers can look at hedging their cattle sale price using MLA/SFE Cattle Futures, the backgrounder must determine how their price relates to the Cattle Futures price.
MLA/SFE Cattle Futures are cash settled on the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) , which means that the backgrounder needs to benchmark his/her historical sale prices against the EYCI, this is usually referred to as basis. For the simplicity of this example, it is assumed the EYCI is the same as the futures price.
Basis (Historical Price Difference) = Historical Sale price minus the Historical EYCI.
By calculating this for the last 5 years worth of sales, as shown in table 2, the backgrounder finds his/her average basis is 12¢/kg liveweight. That is, the price the feedlot pays him/her for his/her feeders is, on average, 12¢ higher than the prevailing EYCI.
Table 2 also shows that the highest basis has been 20¢/kg lwt while the lowest was -2¢.
The EYCI is reported by the National Livestock Reporting Service in dressed weight and is converted into liveweight at 54% to compare liveweight sale prices. Table 2: Calculating Basis
|
Year |
Feeder Price
(¢/kg lwt) |
EYCI
(¢/kg lwt) |
Basis
(¢/kg lwt) |
|
Nov 2000
Nov 2001
Nov 2002
Nov 2003
Nov 2004
Nov 2005
Average |
175
212
140
181
214
199
186.83 |
160
192
122
173
201
201
174.83 |
15
20
18
8
13
-2
12 |
The backgrounder now knows with relative certainty what his/her basis will be in November. It is likely to be between -2¢ and 20¢/kg lwt with an expected value of 12¢.
After understanding how the backgrounder's prices relate to the EYCI and subsequently the MLA/SFE Cattle Futures, the only variable left within this equation is what the EYCI is going to be in November. In order to lock in the EYCI component of his/her price, the backgrounder can use MLA/SFE Cattle Futures.
Take Home Messages:
- Many successful cattle producers know their cost of production and set target profit margins and therefore can calculate a target price.
- To relate a target price to futures prices, a producer must know the "basis" of their cattle to the futures price (EYCI).
- The 'basis' is easily calculated by benchmarking historical sale and purchase prices against the prevailing EYCI on the day of transaction.
The Cattle Futures page will provide more information. |