Australian Bureau: Pacific Cools More; La Nina Developing
Article date: 30 Jun 2010
Source - Dow Jones
Key indicators in the Pacific Ocean suggest a La Nina climate episode is developing, with such an event usually associated with above-average rainfall in Australia, the government's Bureau of Meteorology reported Tuesday.
If a La Nina is established in the Pacific basin, it augurs well for winter crops, including wheat, planting of which has now mostly finished.
Sea surface temperatures continue to cool across the equatorial Pacific, while the tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent region, which the bureau defines as the seas and islands to Australia's north and northwest, exhibit warmer than normal sea surface temperatures, the bureau reported in a weekly tropical climate note.
Pacific sub-surface temperatures remain cooler than normal, with some areas now more than 4.0 degrees Celsius below average. Additionally, easterly trade winds in the western Pacific have strengthened, while convection near the dateline has reduced, it reported.
"All of these indicators, together with a Southern Oscillation Index that has remained positive since April, are consistent with the developing stages of a La Nina event," it reported.
"Supporting this, the majority of climate models surveyed by the bureau suggest the central and eastern tropical Pacific will continue to cool in the coming months," it added.
La Nina is usually associated with cooler than average surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and with above-average winter-spring rainfall in the Western Pacific, and in eastern and northern Australia.
The bureau's Southern Oscillation Index posted a value of plus-2 in the 30 days ended June 27, down from plus-10 in May and down from plus-16 during April.
Rainfall during a La Nina in the winter and spring of 1998 was very much above average over most of Australia, with many locations breaking rainfall records, the bureau reported.
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